The "Big Bang" (mapatz ha-gadol) our political commentators have been predicting for about a year now has happened. Ariel Sharon has left the Likud --- which he himself gathered 30 years ago as a cartel list of three nationalist and pro-market parties --- and formed a new party, which Yediot Achronot reports will be called "Kadima" ("Forward"). The Jerusalem Post reports 15 Likud MKs are joining the new party, namely Sharon himself, Finance Minister Ehud Olmert, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, additional ministers Meir Sheetrit, Gideon Ezra and Avraham Hirchson, Deputy Ministers Ruchama Avraham, Majali Wahabi, Eli Aflalo, Marina Solodkin, Ze'ev Boim and Ya'acov Edri, and Likud MKs Roni Bar-On and (naturally) Omri Sharon. (Even Israelis can no longer keep track of who's a "deputy minister" and who a "minister in [somebody else's] ministry": here is the official list.) Labor MK Haim Ramon has joined the party on the spot, while negotiations are ongoing with several other Labor MKs. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz will instead run for the leadership of the rump Likud, but I personally wouldn't rule out that he will join Kadima later. Shimon Peres is reportedly mulling a (long-overdue) retirement from political life.
Scuttlebutt has it that a number of non-MK public figures are considering joining Kadima, such as "former Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter, Ben Gurion University President Avishai Braverman [...] and former Likud minister Dan Meridor, who has expressed a desire to return to politics." I would definitely like to see Dan Meridor back.
The rump Likud will of course have to choose a new leader, and aside from Bibi Netanyahu and Shaul Mofaz, virtually every remaining senior Likud member has thrown his hat in the ring. Netanyahu is the favorite of a recent poll for the leadership, but with only 41%: speculation has it that, with [Moroccan-born] Amir Peretz recently being elected to the Labor leadership, the Likud would want to stop an exodus of voters of non-Western heritage (persistently and wrongly called "Sephardim" by talking heads) --- that is, either Mofaz (who was born in Iran) or Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom (who was born in Tunisia). Last night's Channel 10 news, which I caought with half an eye, was interviewing cab drivers (usually a good barometer for the "Sephardi" working class vote) who seemed the be split 3-ways Peretz-Sharon-Bibi. (Normally the very suggestion that they might vote Labor would risk bodily harm ;-))
(I have not veiled my contempt for Amir Peretz on this website --- having grown up in a working-class home, I'd like to think recognize socio-economic grandstanding hypocrites when I see them --- but it must be said that he has not only blown new life into Labor, but for the first time made it a serious contender for the Likud's largest voter reservoir.)
For what it's worth, Haaretz published a survey suggesting that Sharon's new party would capture 30 (out of 120) Knesset seats, while Labor under Amir Peretz would stage a comeback with 26 seats and the rump Likud would come in a distant third with 15 seats. The current third party, the centrist-anticlerical Shinui, is expected to shrink drastically, most of its voters going to Sharon's new party Kadima. The far-left Meretz is expected to bleed one-third of its voters to new-style Labor. Far-right parties are expected to hold their own or gain seats.
I was not looking forward to the upcoming elections, as I feared they would offer a Hobson's Choice between Bibi Netanyahu's proven incapability of functioning as PM, and "king anusclown" Amir Peretz's socio-economic grandstanding. (The Histadrut trade union which he leads is not an answer to Israel's economic iniquities but part of the problem itself.)
Not that I am under any illusions that Sharon and his cronies are "a prayer shawl all azure" (as the Hebrew expression goes). But compared to the competition, he is the only choice.
UPDATE: additional polls from the Haaretz ticker:
08:00 PM wins 30 seats in Teleseker poll, vs. 26 for Labor and 15 for Likud (Haaretz)
07:58 PM wins 33 seats in Yedioth poll, vs. 26 for Labor, 12 for Likud (Haaretz)
22:47 Haaretz poll: 37% support Sharon as next PM; 22% favor Peretz (Haaretz) [more here]
It is obviously in Sharon's interests to push elections through as fast as possible, before the "novelty effect" of his new party will wear off. The Knesset has meanwhile dissolved itself with an overwhelming majority.
[JPost editor David Horovitz, no relation to his namesake of frontpage.com and definitely no right-winger, appears to be sharing some of my misgivings about Armand "Amir" Peretz.]
UPDATE 2: Election date set for Tuesday, 28 March 2006.
UPDATE 3: the National Religious Party (once a moderate party, over time become the political arm of the settler movement) and the far-right National Union seriously considering a joint list, or an outright merger. Meanwhile I just heard Netanyahu call Sharon a "dictator" on TV: the Sharon camp is not exactly getting excited. Ehud Olmert: "as usual, when Bibi is under pressure [...] and panics, he starts talking nonsense". And David Tal MK, formerly of Shas, late of the trade-unionist Am Echad faction led by current Labor leader Armand "Amir" Peretz, joined Sharon's list. Every sitting MK who joins Sharon's faction and list is a net gain in campaign funds.
UPDATE 4: Hillel Halkin thinks Sharon's decision to leave the Likud was misguided, but will vote for him anyway:
Partly, it's a question of elimination. Who else is there?
Amir Peretz? So that he can raise our taxes that have just begun to come down and waste several more bloody years trying to achieve a negotiated settlement with a Palestinian Authority that cannot offer Israel acceptable terms and would be too weak to stick to them if it could?
Binyamin Netanyahu? That one-man wrecking crew who more than anyone is responsible for Sharon's leaving the Likud? (Just imagine if Netanyahu had had the sense to back Sharon on disengagement, help him to win the Likud referendum on it, and work to keep the Likud rebels in line: He would be sitting pretty now, a finance minister who had presided over an impressive economic recovery, and Sharon's loyal and undisputed heir. Who can vote for a man with such poor political judgment?)
But partly, too, it's because in a world in which the Palestinians can't be negotiated with on the one hand, and are out-breeding us on the other, unilateral disengagement to borders determined by Israel remains our best strategy. And Sharon is still the only man who can conceivably carry it out, even if he should never have gotten off the bus.